EU household expenditure and consumption of fish affected by rise of prices
In 2022, household spending on fishery and aquaculture products in the EU-274 surged by nearly 11% compared to 2021, accelerating the upward trend that began in 2018. The 2022 increase was closely tied to the spike in inflation linked to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The escalating inflation had a significant impact on the prices of food, particularly of fish, causing their prices to rise by more than 10% from 2021 to 2022. As most of the EU supply of fish comes from imports, this growth was aligned with the increased prices of imported products. Inflation resulted in a significant decrease in at-home fish consumption, which saw volume drop nearly 17% in the highest consuming EU countries from 2021 to 2022, according to Europanel/Kantar/GfK data. Further, this may have led to substitution effects, with EU consumers opting for cheaper animal protein products and reduced portion size, and also cutting back on the frequency of purchasing meat and fish.
EU trade flows record spikes in value
In 2022, the EU trade flows of fishery and aquaculture products saw a 1,5% decrease in volume but a significant 20% increase in nominal value. This translated to a 14% growth in real terms, from 2021 to 2022. Extra-EU imports reached 32 billion euros, a 23% increase from 2021, while their volume decreased by 2%, dropping below pre-pandemic levels. This decline in import volumes and increase in values can be partially attributed to the widespread food price increases that arose in 2022. On the other hand, extra-EU exports totalled 8 billion euros, which represented a 19% increase from 2021.
Intra-EU exchanges amounted to 6 million tonnes and 31,5 billion euros, growing by 17% in value but remaining almost unchanged in volume compared to 2021. Over the past decade, they grew by 59% in real value, surpassing the growth rates of 47% for extra-EU imports and 23% for exports. Intra-EU trade briefly exceeded extra-EU imports in value in 2021, but this trend reversed in 2022.
While the post-COVID-19 recovery drove up demand and prices, lower supply also played a role in this spike in value. At the same time, the Russian military invasion of Ukraine raised energy and production costs, contributing to inflation. The Russian aggression also impacted exchange rates, which influenced EU and global trade.
It is important to note that while most purchases are made in US dollar (USD) or Norwegian krone (NOK), they are reported in euro (EUR) in this report. This is particularly relevant in this edition of the EU fish market, as the euro exchange rate was consistently volatile in 2022. In late 2022, the USD/EUR exchange rate hit an historic low, falling below the 1:1 threshold. However, the euro has rebounded in 2023 and, in the case of the NOK/EUR exchange rate, reached its highest level in four years.
Deterioration of the EU trade balance and others main net importers of fish
As the value of imports grew more than the value of exports, the EU trade deficit was 25% or 4,73 billion euros higher in 2022 than in 2021. In the 2013–2022 decade, the deficit grew by 56% in real terms. All EU countries with deficits greater than 1 billion euros saw a worsened situation from 2021 to 2022. Of note, most EU countries observed value increases in both exports and imports while volumes decreased. The deficit also increased in the United States and Japan, which are the second and third largest net importers of fishery and aquaculture products in the world after the EU. In the US, the deficit grew to 22 billion euros while in Japan it totalled slightly above 12 billion euros, representing a 20% increase from 2021 for both countries.
2021: rise of apparent consumption and of consumed farmed products
Every year, EUMOFA estimates the total supply of fishery and aquaculture products for EU consumers by adding catches + aquaculture production + imports. Then, by subtracting exports, this formula provides an approximation of EU apparent consumption. As consolidated data on EU production of fishery and aquaculture products are available up to 2021, the estimates have been made up to 2021 as well.
In 2021, apparent consumption of fishery and aquaculture products in the EU recovered to an estimated 10,60 million tonnes LWE, marking a 2% increase from 2020. This was linked to a growth in farmed production that partially compensated for decreased catches. Indeed, the per capita apparent consumption of farmed products is estimated to have increased from 6,47 kg LWE in 2020 to 6,80 kg LWE in 2021.
Landings of fishery products, including species not destined for human consumption and seaweed, have been following a downward trend since 2018. The volume of 2021 landings in the EU totalled 3,25 million tonnes worth 5,85 billion euros, which was the lowest recorded in the 2012–2021 decade. That same year, the EU also saw a rise of nearly 30.000 tonnes LWE in imports from 2020, alongside a significant drop of over 164.000 tonnes LWE in exports. According to EUMOFA and national estimates, Portugal’s apparent per capita consumption of fishery and aquaculture products stands out as the highest in the EU, as confirmed in 2021. That said, in contrast to the increase estimated at EU level from 2020 to 2021, decreases were estimated for the major EU consuming countries, including Portugal. However, estimates have also been increasing in some of the countries which traditionally show lower levels of per capita apparent consumption. For example, they increased every year of the last decade in Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.
Recent dynamics for some main species
In 2022, imports of salmon in the EU decreased 3% from 2021, but their value increased by 28%, reaching a ten-year high of 8,4 billion euros. This significant increase in value must be seen in relation to global production of both farmed and wild-caught salmon which was lower in 2022 than 20219. Farmed production of salmon remained stable, which was unusual, as during the 2013-2022 decade, it has been increasing at an average annual growth rate of 5%, while wild caught production dropped significantly, mainly due to reduced captures of pink salmon. Salmon imports from Norway accounted for 83% of the value increase seen in 2022, with a 33% increase in their average import price compared with 2021.
Shrimps10, which accounted for 10% of the volume and 15% of the value of EU imports in 2022, saw a 2% increase in import volume and 17% increase in import value compared with 2021. Warmwater shrimp species, of which 48% were from Ecuador, made up 53% of the volume and 54% of the value of shrimp imports. These were followed by other shrimp species, which accounted for 35% of volume and 38% of value and were mainly imported from Argentina (30% of volume), India (15% of volume) and Vietnam (13% of volume). Finally, coldwater shrimp species accounted for 10% of volume and 6% of value, with 86% of their volume imported from Greenland. In 2022, Ecuador, India and Vietnam increased their market shares by between 1% and 2% in volume, and accounted for 89% of the value increase of shrimp imports. Argentina, on the other hand, lost about 3% of its market share from 2021 to 2022.
Cod is one of the most popular species among EU consumers. In 2022, Norway/Russia cod quotas in the Barents Sea were reduced by 20% and supply to the EU market fell by 7%. Average product price for cod increased by 29%, going from 5,05 to 6,53 EUR/kg, and causing import value to soar by 20% above the 2021 value. Cod prices continued to increase in the first two quarters of 2023, then stabilised in the third quarter. However, prices are expected to remain high going into 2024, when the Norway/Russia quota will once again be reduced by 20%. The main contributors to the value increase were imports from Russia (contributing 37% to the total value increase) and Norway (31%), mainly because of increased average product prices.
Tuna, another favourite among EU consumers, constitutes one of the top five consumed species. In 2022, tuna accounted for 10% of the total volumes and values of fish imported in the EU, with a 1% increase in volume and a 29% increase in value compared with 2021. Skipjack tuna accounted for 53% of the imported volume and 49% of the imported value, followed by yellowfin tuna which accounted for 32% of volume and value. Bluefin tuna achieved the highest average product price at 13,30 EUR/kg. Tuna imported from Ecuador made up 24% of the total value increase for 2022, of which 58% was from imports of skipjack tuna. Overall, import of tuna fillets increased by 4% from 2021, while import of whole tuna decreased by 8%.
Alaska pollock is an important species for the EU processing industry. While its import volume remained stable in 2022, its import value soared by 31% to 986 million euros. Market shares by volume changed significantly from 2021 to 2022, with Russian market shares increasing 9% while US market shares decreased 11%, accounting for 30% and 22% of the total, respectively. China and Russia contributed the most to the increase in import value, thanks to their respective increases of 3% and 40% in import volume, and their respective 35% and 29% increases in average product price.
Macroeconomic trends
In 2022, the euro depreciated by 6,2% against the American dollar (USD) but appreciated against other currencies of importance to operators in the fishery and aquaculture industry. This included appreciation of 3,6% against the British pound (GBP), 4,4% against the Norwegian krone (NOK) and 3,2% against the Icelandic króna (ISK). During the first three quarters of 2023, the euro depreciated 0,9% against the USD, 2,3% against the GBP and 6,3% against the ISK. However, it appreciated by 6,9% against the NOK.
The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate was raised four times in 2022, totalling an increase of 2%, and it has continued to rise in 202317. After six further increases of the interest rate to combat inflation, it was up by 4% as of 20 September 2023. The annual average inflation rate for the EU-27 reached 9,2% in 2022, the highest seen for more than a decade. The inflation rate continued to rise in the first quarter of 2023, before decelerating in May. As of August 2023, the 12-month average inflation rate was at 8,8% for the EU-27.
Marine fuel prices, which increased throughout the first ten months of 2022 in most EU Member States, were impacted by the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. During this period, prices averaged around 1,00 EUR/l, peaking in July at 1,15 EUR/l. Since October 2022, prices have decreased considerably, averaging around 0,70 EUR/l in the first eight months of 2023. Compared with the same period in 2022, this corresponded to a 24% decrease in marine fuel price.
The consumer price index for fishery and aquaculture products in the EU steadily increased in 2022, growing by 17% from January to December. The index continued to increase in the first half of 2023 but started to decline in July. As of August 2023, the index had increased an additional 5% since December 2022.